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☆ A top mind at UBS Global Wealth Management explains why investors' meltdown over elevated interest rates is misguided — and shares a 5-part investing blueprint as stocks continue to rise
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Less than a month ago, analysts were calling for subdued earnings growth of just 3%. Although higher rates can be a headache, Lefkowitz said earnings growth matters most. Instead of obsessing over when interest rates will fall, Lefkowitz said investors should consider the reasoning behind the Fed's decisions. "If rates are rising and that's leading to more confidence in the earnings growth outlook, then that shouldn't be a headwind to markets," Lefkowitz said. Follow this 5-part investing game planHealthy earnings growth and a resilient economy have strategists at UBS GWM bullish about US stocks.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, weren't, that's, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, —, shouldn't Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, UBS GWM, Bank of America, Federal, Healthcare

☆ 3 of Wall Street's biggest banks share what's next for markets after the largest earnings surprise in years — and 25 top stocks to invest in for stable, long-term profit growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Large technology stocks have continued to be a key driver of earnings growth. Those calls are based on the firms' expectation that the economy will continue to grow despite uncomfortably high interest rates. Bullish firms concur that elevated interest rates are a serious concern for investors. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Kostin wrote. Along with each is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, 2024 expected earnings growth rate, and 10-year EBITDA growth variability rate, according to Goldman Sachs.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, Stocks, they've, Mike Wilson, Morgan, 19.3x, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Wilson, Kostin, Russell Organizations: UBS, Business, UBS Beats, UBS Global Wealth Management, Companies, Federal Reserve

☆ Hot inflation and high estimates could ruin the Q1 earnings season. Why investment chiefs are increasingly worried — and the bull case that profits are still underestimated.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Without strong profit progress in the Q1 earnings season starting in mid-April, US stocks may surrender their 8.2% year-to-date gain. Loftier estimates, top-heavy earnings are reasons for worryFirms have a rather low bar to clear in the upcoming earnings season, as is often the case. The market's largest companies are disproportionately driving earnings growth in addition to stock returns, Goldman Sachs found. The Q1 earnings season begins in earnest on Friday as big banks share results. Early reporters have beaten earnings estimates by 13.5%, Golub wrote, which he added is more than double the typical rate.

Persons: Richard Saperstein, James Ragan, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, we're, Saglimbene, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Jonathan Golub, Golub, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, Treasury Partners, DA Davidson, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bel Air Investment Advisors, UBS, Institute for Supply Management Locations: America

☆ Consumers are growing more resistant to price increases, says Golub Capital CEO
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are growing more resistant to price increases, says Golub Capital CEOLawrence Golub, Golub Capital CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss what to expect from the upcoming slate of earnings, which sectors are performing well, the state of consumer facing sectors, and more.

Persons: Lawrence Golub Organizations: Consumers, Golub Capital

☆ Private credit may offer high yields, but investors should tread carefully. What to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Private credit has become a hot investment on Wall Street as institutional investors seek out alternative investments with attractive dividends. "Investors might consider allocating a portion of their portfolio to private credit, depending on their individual risk tolerance, investment horizon and financial goals." Private credit funds have yields generally in the low-teens, although it can vary, he said. In a February report on U.S. life insurance ratings, Fitch Ratings said, "elevated private credit borrower leverage and a relative deterioration in private credit terms and conditions during more competitive lending environments are adding to pressures in the credit quality of private credit assets." The majority of the portfolio is in direct lending private credit, but a portion is also in publicly-traded securities of larger corporate issuers.

Persons: SoFi, Vivek Paul, Paul, Goldman, Greg Olafson, David Solomon, Fitch, Lisa Kwasnowski, Blackstone, Kwasnowski, Chuck Failla, it's, Failla, Oppenheimer, Mitchel Penn, Penn, Ares Capital, They've Organizations: Street, Franklin BSP Private Credit Fund, CNBC, Wall, BlackRock, Research, Management, UBS, Blackstone Private Credit Fund, Sovereign Financial Group, Securities and Exchange Commission, Owl, Golub, Ares, Sixth, SEC Locations: DBRS Morningstar's

☆ UBS hikes its S&P 500 target to 5,400, highest on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

UBS just raised its S & P 500 year-end target to the highest among major Wall Street banks, saying it was "not bullish enough." "Despite our bullish outlook, it appears we were not bullish enough," Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at UBS, said in a note. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Golub is not the only strategist raising his forecast. On average, strategists anticipate the S & P 500 will end the year at 4,961, according to a CNBC survey. The S & P 500 is higher by more than 4%, having notched fresh record highs in recent weeks.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Goldman Sachs Organizations: UBS, PPI, CNBC

☆ 8 more of our stocks report earnings next week. Here's what we want to see
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-03 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +13 min

The three major averages posted gains for the fourth week in row, lifted by strong quarterly earnings results for most of the Big Tech companies and a strong jobs report. A weaker ADP Employment report on Wednesday provided no read-through to the monster January jobs report Friday. Here's what we're keeping an eye on in the coming week: 1. Earnings: It's another big earnings week head for the portfolio, with 8 more of our companies reporting. Consistency is what we appreciate most from nat gas giant Linde , so we're hoping for another quarter of solid earnings growth Tuesday.

Persons: Estee Lauder, Eli Lilly, Mounjaro, Nelson Peltz, Estée Lauder, Tyson, CARR, Jacobs, Willis Towers Watson, Edwards, Walt Disney, Oscar Health, Philip Morris, Armour, BAX, BILL, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, George Frey Organizations: Big Tech, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, PMI, Apple, Starbucks, Procter, Gamble, GE Healthcare, DuPont, Linde, Ford, General Motors, Trian Partners, Disney, ESPN, Wynn Resorts, Wynn, Vegas, Prix, Estée Lauder Companies, Caterpillar, McDonalds Corp, Allegiant Travel, Bowlero Corp, Tyson Foods, TSN, Air Products & Chemicals, IDEXX Laboratories, CNA Financial Corp, CNA, Timken Company, Graham Corporation, Mesa Laboratories, Sphere Entertainment, Loews Corp, Technologies, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Semiconductors, Simon Property Group, Amkor Technology, FMC Corporation, FMC, BellRing Brands, Crown Holdings, ChampionX Corporation, Golub Capital BDC, Flexsteel Industries, Kilroy Realty Corp, Gladstone Capital Corp, Unibanco, S.A, Snack Foods Corp, Kimball Electronics, Skyline Corp, Cabot Corporation, Simpson Manufacturing Co, Varonis Systems, Co, GE HealthCare, Linde plc, LIN, Spotify Technology S.A, BP, Hertz Global Holdings, AeroSystems Holdings, Toyota Motor Corp, Cummins, CMI, Software Technologies, AGCO Corporation, Carrier Global Corporation, Lear Corp, CONSOL Energy, Centene Corporation, Gartner, Arcbest Corp, CTS Corporation, Energizer Holdings, Hamilton Lane Incorporated, KKR, Precision Drilling Corporation, Frontier Group Holdings, Waters Corp, Alfa Laval, Aramark Holdings Corp, FirstService Corporation, Garden Sports Corp, New Jersey Resources Corp, nVent Electric plc, PJT Partners, Resources, Sensata Technologies, Ford Motor Company, Enphase Energy, Grill, VF Corp, Edwards Lifesciences Corp, Gilead Sciences, Lumen Technologies, Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp, Weatherford International plc, Amcor plc, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Advanced Energy Industries, Uber Technologies, CVS Health, Roblox Corporation, Ares Capital Corp, Bunge, XPO Logistics, Scotts Miracle, Gro Company, Berry Global, Flex LNG, Equinor ASA, Griffon Corporation, OneMain Holdings, Brookfield Asset Management, Emerson Electric Co, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Reynolds Consumer Products, Silicon Laboratories, Brands, Sciences, CDW Corp, Fox Corporation, WYNN, PayPal, Arm Holdings plc, ARM, Axcelis Technologies, Mattel, Paycom, Annaly Capital Management, McKesson Corp, Health Corporation, O'Reilly Automotive, Allstate Corp, Fluence Energy, Power Systems, Digital Turbine, Blue Bird Corp, Everest Group, Omega HealthCare, Coty, COTY, ConocoPhillips, Cameco Corp, Philip Morris International, Spirit Airlines, Hershey Company, Lightspeed Commerce, Aurora Cannabis, Lincoln National Corp, P, Tenet Healthcare Corp, Asbury Automotive Group, Arrow Electronics, Baxter International, PetMed, Boyd Gaming Corp, FirstEnergy Corp, Motorola Solutions, Terex Corp, PepsiCo, Growth, AMC Networks, Owl, American Pipeline, TELUS International, Magna International, Newell Brands, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S, China, Macau, Wynn Macau, Valvoline, VVV, ALFVY, Madison, New Jersey, Gilead, Ceridian, ORLY, Paycor, Aurora, Provo , Utah

☆ Top money managers warn that 2024 earnings expectations are getting out of hand, even as Wall Street firms scramble to raise their S&P 500 targets
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Goldman Sachs"We expect price increases to be driven by modest earnings growth and well-supported price-to-earnings multiples," wrote Austin Pickle, a strategist at WFII, in a January 16 note. Stucky continued: "I've never seen a re-acceleration in earnings growth — which is what the baseline expectation is for earnings — absent some sort of economic recovery or an acceleration in economic growth. He noted that many factors influence profits, but added that his forward model suggests there's earnings risk ahead. Bianco said he expects flat or mid-single-digit earnings growth for stocks in most sectors. However, he said that during expansions, GDP growth is a poor predictor of earnings growth.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Austin Pickle, Jonathan Golub, Golub, Matt Stucky, Stucky, I've, Brad Klapmeyer, He's, Klapmeyer, Anthony Saglimbene, —, Saglimbene, Saglimbene doesn't, David Bianco, Bianco Organizations: Business, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Macquarie Asset Management, DWS Group

☆ UBS raises S&P 500 target for 2024, sees nearly 8% gain from here
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is in for yet another strong year, according to UBS. The firm lifted its year-end target on the S & P 500 from 4,850 to 5,150, representing 7.7% upside for the benchmark stock index from Friday's close. The S & P 500 ended last week at 4,783.83. This year's more dovish Federal Reserve policy supports higher valuations, Golub said, upping his 2024 earnings-per-share estimate on the S & P 500 by $10 to $235. "While the S & P 500 advanced throughout 2023, leadership has become more pro-cyclical over the past 3 months, an indication of investor optimism toward the economy," Golub said.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, upping Organizations: UBS, Federal, Technology

☆ UBS sees big market swings and only slight gains for stocks in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-12 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

UBS is out with its 2024 outlook, and it expects some wild swings for markets next year. The Wall Street firm on Monday said it sees the S & P 500 ending next year at 4,850, roughly 5% above Monday's close of 4,622.44. Stocks have been on a tear recently, with the S & P 500 riding a six-week winning streak. "The large spread between current strength and expected weakness presents a dilemma for investors," Golub wrote Monday. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said he anticipates the S & P 500 will end next year at 4,700 , just a stone's throw from where the broader index is currently trading.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Stocks, Golub, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, America's

☆ In hedge funds' backyard, private credit is the toast of the town
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Bradley Saacks | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Instead, people like Ken Kencel — CEO of Churchill Asset Management, a private credit division of asset management giant Nuveen — held court. In the next decade, he predicted that private credit shops and direct lenders could fill in the holes in the asset-based lending space, as well as home and auto loans. Private credit — or alternative credit or direct lending — is a subsect of finance that has grown rapidly thanks to higher interest rates and distressed banks. Higher interest rates are forcing institutions — the pensions and endowments that make up hedge funds' biggest investors — to rethink their portfolios. But while the Bridgewater founder had the rapt attention of the room, it was at a direct lending panel a couple of hours later when an ambitious audience member pitched himself to the private credit executives onstage.

Persons: Ray Dalio, Cliff Asness, Ken Kencel, —, I've, Banks, Gregory Robbins, Jan Van Eck Organizations: Greenwich Economic, Churchill Asset Management, Golub Capital, Bridgewater Locations: Greenwich, China

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Investor hopes for US soft landing ride on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Too high a number could fan fears of the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer or hiking them more in coming months. That would give investors less reason to hold onto stocks after a tech-led drop in which the S&P 500 lost about 5% from summer highs. Reasons for optimism include the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy compared to Europe and China, and signs the so-called profit recession among S&P 500 companies may be over. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector lost more than 2% this week following news that Beijing had ordered central government employees to stop using iPhones for work. Still, much of the bull case for stocks hinges on softer inflation eventually pushing the Fed to lower interest rates.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Michael Purves, Randy Frederick, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Technology, Apple, Huawei, Chief, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Credit Suisse Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Europe, China, Beijing

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investor hopes for US soft landing ride on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ The clash of sustainability and AI is creating a challenge for Dell, IBM and others
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( Rachel Curry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

"From our perspective, AI looks like a really big data problem," said Ben Golub, CEO of decentralized cloud storage company Storj. This startup is joined by legacy enterprises like Dell and IBM in tackling data storage efficiency for economic and environmental sustainability. For those that do go decentralized, Lewis says it's still important to maintain what he calls "centralized management of a decentralized architecture." IBM recently launched its Cloud Carbon Calculator, an AI-informed dashboard designed to give clients access to standards-based greenhouse gas emissions data and help manage their cloud carbon footprint. Which workloads are best suited for a decentralized data storage model?

Persons: Andriy Onufriyenko, Ben Golub, Arthur Lewis, Lewis, Golub, Dell, it's, Ermengarde Jabir, Jabir, Alan Peacock, Peacock Organizations: Dell, IBM, Dell Technologies, Infrastructure Solutions, IBM Cloud

☆ Wearing Paint Instead of Clothes on the Streets of New York
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Callie Holtermann | More About Callie Holtermann | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Across from a Pret a Manger near Union Square Park, Nicolette Barischoff held still as an artist painted an open blue eye across her sternum on Sunday. “It’s a very Zen experience,” she said, as photographers snapped pictures from behind police barricades. This year’s installment was the 10th — and the last, according to the event’s founder, Andy Golub, an artist. He said he was ending it to focus on other projects for his organization, Human Connection Arts. Nije Durdeen, 31, came from Philadelphia to model after learning she might not get another chance.

Persons: Nicolette Barischoff, “, ”, Ms, Barischoff, Andy Golub, Nije Durdeen Organizations: Human Connection Locations: Los Angeles, Philadelphia

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Relentless U.S. stock rally faces Fed test
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is up nearly 19% year-to-date and closed on Thursday at 4,534.87, only about 6% below an all-time high reached in January 2022. What the Fed does and says next week will be critical," said Cliff Corso, chief investment officer at Advisors Asset Management. "Bearish investors have had to capitulate," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. The bank last month raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 4,500, from 4,000. However, Christopher Tsai, chief investment officer at Tsai Capital, is not worried about buying into an overvalued market.

Persons: Cliff Corso, Jonathan Golub, Tom Lee, Ed Yardeni, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Eric Freedman, Goldman Sachs, Sunitha Thomas, We've, Christopher Tsai, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fed, Asset Management, Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse, Fundstrat Global, Yardeni Research, National Association of Active Investment, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Consumers, Northern Trust, Tsai, MSCI Inc, Zoetis Inc, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jonathan Golub of

☆ China's sagging economy looms over quarterly results around the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Noel Randewich | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

July 20 (Reuters) - China's frail growth could weigh on companies with exposure to the world's second-largest economy, including Apple (AAPL.O), big chipmakers and luxury retailers as they report quarterly results in the next few weeks. China accounted for 36% of NXP's revenue last year and half of Texas Instruments' revenue. Analysts estimate NXP reporting a 3.2% drop in quarterly revenue, with Texas Instruments' revenue tumbling 16%, which would be its steepest drop since 2009, according to Refinitiv. The specialty glass maker blamed "anticipated recession-level demand" for weak results in its previous quarterly report last April. Coffee maker Starbucks (SBUX.O) in May reported quarterly results that beat estimates, powered by recovering demand in China.

Persons: Ross Mayfield, Baird, Cartier, Richemont, Bernstein, Tesla, Jonathan Golub, hobble, David Klink, Noel Randewich, Chavi Mehta, Caroline Valetkovitch, Mimosa Spencer, David Gaffen, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Apple, U.S, Shanghai, ABB, HK, NXP Semiconductors, Texas, Texas Instruments, . Credit Suisse Chief, Equity, Corning Inc, Samsung Electronics, Huntington Private Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Swiss, Asia, ., China . U.S, Washington, Beijing, Oakland , California, Bangalore, New York, Paris

☆ Credit Suisse ups S&P 500 year-end forecast to 4,700
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse increased its year-end target on the S&P 500 (.SPX) to 4,700 from 4,050, citing a decline in the near-term U.S. recession risk and a stronger earnings outlook for the largest technology-related companies, according to a research note on Tuesday from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist & head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse Securities USA. The S&P 500 is currently at 4,545 and up about 18% for the year so far. The company also said it raised its 2023 earnings per share estimates to $220 from $215 and its 2024 EPS forecast to $237 from $220, noting additional 2024 growth tied in part to a rebound in technology-focused company earnings and to buybacks. "Our base case is that a recession will be averted, inflation will remain sticky near current levels, and monetary policy will tighten incrementally," Golub and other Credit Suisse strategists wrote. Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Chris Reese and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Caroline Valetkevitch, Chris Reese, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: YORK, Credit Suisse, Credit Suisse Securities USA, Suisse, Thomson

☆ Credit Suisse raises S&P 500 target to 4,700 — highest on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Credit Suisse thinks this year's market run has more to go, raising its S & P 500 forecast to the highest on Wall Street. Jonathan Golub, the bank's head of U.S. equity strategy, hiked his S & P 500 year-end target to 4,700 from 4,050. Stocks have been on a surprising tear in 2023, with the S & P 500 climbing about 18% despite concerns over inflation, rising interest rates and a potential U.S. economic recession. The run has left many Wall Street strategists flat-footed. The next highest target on the Street besides Golub is CFRA at 4,575.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Stocks, Michael Bloom Organizations: Suisse Locations: Monday's, Golub, CFRA, China

☆ Fmr. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren: I expect an easing in labor market in second half of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFmr. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren: I expect an easing in labor market in second half of 2023Eric Rosengren, former Boston Fed President and MIT Golub Center visiting scholar, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, whether more interest rate hikes are in store, and more.

Persons: Eric Rosengren Organizations: Boston Fed, MIT Golub Center

☆ Wall Street is worried the stock market is already overvalued
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Even as the stock market is just trying to claw its way out of a bear market, multiple Wall Street firms on Thursday raised concerns that equities are already overvalued. Following a breakout in the past month, the S & P 500 is up more than 20% from its October low and is at a 13-month high. But while an official bull market is not yet confirmed (S & P 500 needs to hit a new all-time high for that), the stock market may already be overvalued, some major strategists said. .SPX ALL mountain S & P 500 long term The S & P 500 is trading at forward price-earnings ratio of 18.8, compared to the average valuation of 15.4 times the last four decades, according to UBS. Nevertheless, normally uber-bullish Wall Street is having trouble seeing boom times ahead for equity investors with valuations already so high.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, annualized, Jonathan Golub, Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Global Wealth Management, Americas, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse

☆ Halfway through 2023 Wall Street still can't agree on the earnings outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A strange year: Halfway through, there is a wide difference of opinion on earnings Strategists analyze the macroeconomy to come up with an estimate for corporate earnings. They analyze individual company performance to come up with earnings estimates, which are then aggregated into an overall estimate by agencies like FactSet or Refinitiv. The S & P 500 reported $218 in earnings in 2022, according to Refinitiv. This highlights the difference between analysts and strategists: Analysts have models for earnings of individual companies, not the macroeconomy as strategists do. However, in this case, their reticence to slash earnings estimates in expectation of an imminent recession or a banking crisis has proved to be correct.

Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Mike Wilson's, John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer, David Kostin, Brian Belski, Jonathan Golub, Lori Calvasina, Savita Subramanian, Chris Harvey, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Hatzius Organizations: Here's, BMO, Credit, RBC, Wells, Bloomberg, Bank Locations: U.S

☆ These 15 stocks will matter the most to corporate profits during a quarter where earnings will fall again, according to Credit Suisse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are preparing for a second straight quarter of negative earnings growth. Credit SuisseMarkets are bracing for weaker profits in seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, Golub wrote. Q1 earnings revisions are more negative than usual, according to Credit Suisse. Weaker bottom-lines are also masking anticipated strength in sales growth, Credit Suisse found. Those 15 stocks are below, along with the ticker, weight of S&P 500 profits, expected earnings growth, and expected contribution to earnings growth for each.

☆ World stocks hope for Fed pause, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 per ounce level as the dollar came off Monday's peak, while oil prices rose despite Chinese inflation data pointing to persistently weak demand. Investors are eagerly awaiting U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.244%, with the euro up 0.41% to $1.0904 and the yen weakening 0.12% at 133.78 per dollar.

☆ The most closely watched recession indicator is telling markets that a downturn won't materialize for another 2 years, Credit Suisse chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The most closely watched recession indicator is saying a downturn won't happen for another two years. That's because the Treasury futures market suggests the yield curve inversion will last until 2026, Credit Suisse's Jonathan Golub said. Golub predicted a downturn to strike in August 2025 based on historical data. When short term bond yields surpass longer term yields, it is a notorious indicator of an incoming recession. On the more bearish end, Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist warned of a 26% stock market crash, as higher interest rates weigh on equities.

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